Congressional Republicans have said that spending cuts must be at least as large as an increase in the debt ceiling. Negotiations over lifting the debt ceiling are ongoing, but the โ€œmagic number,โ€ so-to-speak, would be around $2 trillion in spending cuts.

Cutting $2 trillion in federal spending sounds like a lot, but itโ€™s actually relatively small because the cuts would likely occur over ten years. According to the Congressional Budget Officeโ€™sย most recent budget baseline, the federal government will spend almost $46 trillion over the next ten years.

The following chart shows what $2 trillion in spending cuts over the next ten years looks like when measured against the CBOโ€™s baseline. Even with the cuts, federal spending would still increase by $1.8 trillion:

Rather than actually cutting spending, federal spending (and debt) would continue to grow โ€“ just at a slightly lower rate. And as Chris Edwards continues to warn, there is a strong possibility that some or all of theย โ€œcutsโ€ could be phony.

cross-posted from Cato-at-Liberty