A government “shutdown” is here.
This is nothing more than political theater. Don’t get caught up in the rhetoric and emotion. The only thing that matters is what Congress ultimately does.
And I can almost guarantee what it will do.
More spending. More borrowing. More debt.
The Democrats, led by Sen. Chuck Schumer, are demanding an extension of billions of dollars in Obamacare tax subsidies and other spending tweaks to the healthcare program.
“Our position has been very clear: cancel the cuts, lower the costs, save healthcare,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said in an ABC interview.
Republicans call it a no-go.
“Chuck Schumer came back with a long laundry list of partisan demands that don’t fit into this process, and he’s going to try to shut the government down,” House Speaker Mike Johnson said.
But this isn’t really about the spending.
It’s about politics.
It’s about soundbites.
It’s about power.
The spending is coming down the pike regardless.
I can say this with complete confidence because spending always increases.
The bill (The Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2026 — H.R. 5371) being debated is nothing more than a stopgap. It would keep the government open until Nov. 21, giving Congress time to hammer out fiscal 2026 appropriations. (The new fiscal year begins Oct. 1).
That’s where you’re going to see the spending.
As currently drawn up, this particular bill wouldn’t increase spending significantly. The CR would keep federal agencies funded at roughly current (FY2025) rates. However, there are a few spending increases in the CR. It includes added security for federal officials and higher operating rates for specific accounts, including the Treasury’s Terrorism & Financial Intelligence, along with some SBA guarantee programs.
Based on Congressional Budget Office analysis, the CR would implement a handful of narrow spending increases for specific needs, while mandatory programs keep running on autopilot.
The House has already passed the continuing resolution. The roadblock for the Republicans is in the Senate.
Enter the government shutdown.
Neither side seems inclined to budge.
But this isn’t about actually hammering out a sane spending plan. It’s about politics. It’s about making you angry. It’s about showing up “the other side.” When it’s all said and done, they will come to some sort of compromise.
I’d be willing to bet that compromise will mean more money spent.
Even if it doesn’t keep in mind that holding spending at current levels isn’t good news. “Current levels” means spending money hand over fist.
With one month left in fiscal 2025, the federal government had spent $6.73 trillion, a 5.9 percent increase over the same period in fiscal ’24. The Trump administration has already spent more this fiscal year than it did last.
There is no indication that spending will slow down any time soon. The Big Beautiful Bill “cut” some spending but increased it in other areas. Furthermore, those “cuts” were from projected spending increases. Actual spending will still go up, just not as fast as originally planned. The bottom line is that even with the Big Beautiful Bill, spending will increase on an absolute basis.
This is par for the course.
Make no mistake, the 2026 spending bill will increase that level. Oh, they may trim the speed of some of the spending increases. They’ll call that a “cut,” and partisans will cheer. But spending will increase on an absolute level.
It always does.
Every president since Calvin Coolidge has left the U.S. with a bigger national debt than when he took office.
The ugly truth is the government isn’t committed to cutting spending in any meaningful way, and it always finds new reasons to spend even more, whether for “crises” at home or wars overseas.
A FAKE SHUTDOWN
A note about government shutdowns: it’s not really a complete shutdown.
All the worst things the government does will continue. The war machine will keep warring. The surveillance state will keep spying. The IRS will keep extorting.
Government shutdowns are political theater. They are meant to inflict maximum pain and inconvenience on ordinary people. The goal is to make you angry at the other team so you will vote accordingly.
I remember when the government shut down in 2011 during the Obama administration. One of the more ludicrous moves was closing Mt. Rushmore. I mean, who closes outside?
That’s just one example.
People trying to access federal websites during that lockdown encountered a message.
“Due to the lapse in federal government funding, this website is not available.”
I bet it cost more to put up that message than it would have to just leave the website accessible.
The feds blocked WWII veterans from entering an outdoor memorial that was paid for and maintained with private funds.
They even kicked people out of their own homes. At the time, KTNV in Nevada reported that people living around Lake Mead were forced to leave when the government closed for business.
“Joyce Spencer is 77 years old, and her husband Ralph is 80. They’ve been spending most of their time in the family ice cream store since going home isn’t an option.
“The Spencers never expected to be forced out of their Lake Mead home, which they’ve owned since the 70s, but on Thursday, a park ranger said they had 24 hours to get out.”
No logical reason for this order existed. It doesn’t cost the feds money for an old couple to remain in their home. This was nothing more than a move designed to inflict pain on innocent people to make a political point.
Who does this?
Bullies.
People with power who care about nothing other than exercising, maintaining, and increasing that power.
So, take this for what it is. And watch what happens with the spending.
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